About a year ago, I posted about Canada’s involvement in Afghanistan and my strong support for continuing that involvement. The CBC and Environics came out yesterday with a poll that asks Afghans themselves what they think about the Western democracies’ involvement in their country and I have to say that it bears out what I’ve said before about how if the Afghans did NOT want Western troops in their country they would express it much more forcefully. Ask the Soviets (if you can find any now) about their experience with how Afghans exercise their freedom of expression.
So, what do the results tell us? Let’s have a look at some of the salient points from the Environics’ website:
First off, before anyone says that this poll was only conducted in Kabul, the methodology states that it was conducted across the entire country.
The Environics survey was conducted by ACSOR between September 17 and 24, 2007 with a representative sample of 1,578 adult Afghans (18 years and older) across all 34 of the country’s provinces. The surveys were conducted in-person in people’s homes in either Dari or Pashto, the two dominant languages. Female interviewers interviewed women and male interviewers interviewed Afghan men, and the sample was stratified to ensure a 50-50 distribution on gender.
Second, the response rate of 85% is supposedly a lot better than in the Western democracies themselves. I guess people take for granted those things such as freedom of expression which have been handed to them.
I’m glad to see that the majority of Afghans albeit with a slim margin believe that their country is moving in the right direction. There is a significant minority that think otherwise due to a lack of security and security. The latter is not the result of Western intervention.
I know that there have been some reports that say that Afghan women in the countryside do not have or do not enjoy the same rights as women in the cities and, while that may or may not be true, the vast majority of respondents say that the situation of Afghan women today is better than it was under the Taliban. This is something that many advocates of us pulling out of Afghanistan would not like to hear or would like to ignore. It’s amazing or incomprehensible to me how people who believe in human rights, specifically women’s rights, are so willing to ignore them when it is expedient to do so.
Seven in ten (73%) believe that women in Afghanistan today are better off then five years ago (under the Taliban), a view that is equally widespread in Kandahar and among women across the country.
One of the more surprising findings to me is how positive the Afghan people, overall, view the Karzai government. I’ve said elsewhere that Karzai is from the south so he should have some support among the Pashtun majority there (information gathered from a book I read earlier) but others have said that he was basically a puppet of the Americans and/or he was just the “Mayor of Kabul”. Truth is, no:
Afghans voice confidence in their national government. Seven in ten (71%) are very or somewhat positive in their general opinion of the Karzi government (versus 20% who are negative), and six in ten (59%) believe the Karzi government represents their interests as an Afghan. On both questions views are more positive in Kandahar. Across ethnic groups, opinion of the Karzi government is strongest among Uzbek, Hazara and Pashtun (from which the Taliban recruit), and weakest among the Tajik.
I think that the numbers are a bit eye-popping given that I doubt that any Canadian government in recent memory can muster such support. I’m pleased to see that the south is a lot more supportive than I would have expected and that bodes well for putting down the Taliban and their al-Qaeda supporters.
Now, on to what the Afghans think of our presence there:
What do Afghans think about the multitude of foreign countries that have been present in their country over the past five years? Most believe this has been a positive presence. Six in ten (60%) Afghans say the foreign presence is a good thing for their country, compared with 16 percent who say it is a bad thing; another 22 percent are more ambivalent (seeing this as both good and bad) (views are less positive in Kandahar). In terms of the foreign presence in their local area, Afghans are also more positive (49%) than negative (26%), although to a lesser extent (in Kandahar, 57% say the local foreign presence is a good thing).
Again, I am a bit surprised at the result from Kandahar which is often painted as a Taliban stronghold. Of course, you could say that the pollsters were viewed by respondents as spies so they would say anything that won’t get them killed but if you could do better yourself go right ahead.
What do Afghans think specifically of Canadians’ role and efforts in their country? This is the part that sort of cheeses me off. They don’t believe that the Canadians are doing much of the fighting nor are we doing much of the reconstruction effort:
In terms of public awareness of the presence of foreign countries (covering all functions and roles), Canada ranks fourth after the United States (95%), Germany (63%), the U.K. (52%) and then Canada at 46 percent. In Kandahar, Canada comes second with 58 percent recognition, well behind the United States (at 98%).
Who, top of mind, is fighting the Taliban? Nationwide, it is almost exclusively the United States (89%) that is seen as playing this role. Few mention any other country, including Germany (4%) and, the U.K. (3%), with virtually no mention of Canada. Even in Kandahar (where our forces have lost 71 soldiers and counting), it is the U.S. who is seen as the military presence (90%), with only two percent naming Canada.
What about public awareness of who is providing reconstruction assistance? Do the Afghan people know of Canadians activity or are we invisible here too? On a national level, Canada has low visibility (at 4% awareness), well behind the U.K. (39%) and Germany (27%). But in Kandahar awareness of Canada’s participation jumps to 25 percent, in a statistical tie with these other two countries.
And who do Afghans see as being involved in helping train the Afghan National Army and the National Police? Nationally, Canada (14%) comes second only to Germany (22%), and Canada earns the highest recognition in Kandahar (23%), followed by India (17%) and Germany (10%).
The above is pretty disappointing. Either our efforts there are swamped by other countries or we are doing a lousy marketing job.
Are we doing better in the areas where we are most active? It seems so:
The survey posed additional questions to Afghans in Kandahar province regarding Canada’s mission and presence. Close to nine in ten (87%) Kandahar residents are aware that Canada is active in their province (when prompted). When asked to evaluate the job the Canadian military is doing in Kandahar, six in ten residents give our troops a very positive (26%) or somewhat positive (34%) rating, compared with one in five who are negative (19%), and another 21 percent who cannot say either way.
Are Canadians doing a better or worse job than other countries in helping Afghanistan? By a four-to-one margin, Kandahar residents say Canada is doing a better job (48%) rather than a worse job (12%); the remainder sees no difference (22%) or are unable to offer an opinion (17%).
I guess the thing to remember or to note is that Afghanistan is made up of over 30 provinces and we Canadians are only active in one or two of them which would explain our almost-nonexistent showing on the national level. It also serves to remind us that the fighting in the south is not representative of the overall Afghan situation.
Speaking of the fighting, what do Afghans think of the Taliban and al-Qaeda?
What is public opinion of the Taliban, who ruled the country prior to 2002? When asked, almost three quarters of Afghans nationwide have a very negative (53%) or somewhat negative (20%) opinion of the Taliban, compared with only 14 percent who hold a positive view. Opinions are marginally less critical in Kandahar (67% negative versus 20% positive), and among Pashtuns (64% negative versus 26% positive). Moreover, the public is most likely to believe that the Taliban enjoys the support of only a few Afghans (50%), rather than some (24%) or most (7%), with Kandahar opinion only slightly more positive toward the Taliban.
As for the infamous terrorist group that first inspired the post 9/11 American-inspired invasion of Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, sympathy among Afghans is very low. Fewer than one in five (19%) nationwide (and only 7% in Kandahar) believe Al Qaeda is a ?positive Islamic force in the world today.
I’ve read reports that stated that al-Qaeda was widely supported in some parts of the world and it’s good to see that it’s not so in Afghanistan.
Finally, should Canada and the Western coalition leave? The Afghans themselves to a great degree don’t think that we should be leaving any time soon:
How do Afghans view the timetable for foreign troop withdrawals from their country, which has been wracked by conflict for more than 30 years. There is no public consensus on this question, but given the positive influence most attribute to the international forces, the plurality (43%) of Afghans say that foreign troops should remain ?however long it takes to defeat the Taliban and restore order.? By comparison, one-quarter are looking for a relatively quick exit, either immediately (14%) or within the next year (11%). Another quarter take the middle view of wanting them to stay either two more (12%) or three to five more (15%) years.
Personally, I think that the West should stay as long as it takes to defeat the religious fundamentalism as espoused by al-Qaeda if the Afghans themselves prove unable to resist the pressure. Once they can secure their own country then it’s time to leave but not before then.
I’m really glad that this poll has come out at this point in time when the Western democracies are proving once again how irresolute and short-sighted they can be. Maybe the West’s population will stop dithering with one another and listen to the Afghans and get the job done right.